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V-Dem Seminar with Sebastian Elischer

Research profile seminar

Sebastian Elischer (visiting scholar 12-16 February) will present the paper "How Often and Why Do Military Coups Usher in Civilian Rule? Coups, Post-Coup Elections and Autocratic Resilience in the Post-Cold War World".

Abstract: Drawing on the literature on autocratic resilience and the logic of fuzzy-set theoretical models, the article examines the political consequences of all post-1989 military coups. It analysis the extent to which juntas remain in or withdraw from power in the aftermath of a coup. A few quantitative studies claim that post-Cold War coups have a higher propensity to usher in democratization that coups that took place during the Cold War. This medium-N analysis finds little reason to be enthusiastic about the political outcomes of post-Cold War coups. It argues that a high degree of citizens involvement in civil society organizations and the absence of social tensions to be necessary and sufficient conditions for military withdrawal from power in the aftermath of a coup. Results for cases in which the armed forces remain in power indicate that in almost all cases the outcome is a foregone conclusion as the armed forces do not appear to be receptive to pressure by outside actors.

Bio: Sebastian Elischer is assistant professor of political science at the University of Florida. His research examines the evolution of ethnic and religious identities in sub-Saharan Africa. His 2013 book Political Parties in Africa was published by Cambridge University Press. Previous articles appeared in Comparative Politics, Democratization and African Affairs. He currently works on a book manuscript examining the relationship between African states and conservative Sunni communities.

Date: 2/14/2018

Time: 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM

Categories: Social Sciences

Organizer: Department of Political Science/V-Dem

Location: B336, Stora Skansen

Contact person: Natalia Stepanova

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